Gartner Warns: Agentic AI Hype Will Lead to 40% Project Failures

A wave of disillusionment is poised to crash over the burgeoning field of agentic artificial intelligence, with technology research firm Gartner predicting that more than 40% of enterprise projects in this domain will be discontinued by 2027.[1][2][3] This stark forecast suggests a significant market correction, as companies grapple with the immense hype surrounding AI agents and the sober reality of their implementation. The primary drivers for this anticipated wave of cancellations are escalating costs, an inability to demonstrate clear business value, and insufficient risk management.[4][3][5] Many current initiatives are little more than early-stage experiments or proofs of concept, often misapplied and failing to move into productive use.[1][4][3]

According to Anushree Verma, a Senior Director Analyst at Gartner, the excitement around agentic AI—systems capable of autonomous action and decision-making—has led many organizations to overlook the profound costs and complexities involved in deploying these agents at scale.[1][3] This can blind organizations to the real challenges, ultimately stalling projects before they can deliver a return on investment.[4] A Gartner poll from January 2025 revealed the mixed state of enterprise adoption: while 19% of the 3,412 respondents reported significant investments in agentic AI, 42% were investing more conservatively.[1][3] A substantial portion, 31%, remained on the sidelines, either undecided or adopting a wait-and-see approach, while 8% had made no investments at all.[1][3] This cautious sentiment reflects a growing awareness of the technology's immaturity and the difficulty in achieving complex business goals with current models.[4][2]

A significant factor clouding the landscape is a practice Gartner terms "agent washing," where vendors rebrand existing tools like AI assistants, robotic process automation (RPA), and chatbots as agentic AI, despite them lacking true autonomous capabilities.[1][6][7] This marketing-driven trend inflates the perceived market size and maturity, creating confusion for businesses trying to identify genuine solutions. Gartner estimates that of the thousands of vendors claiming to offer agentic AI, only about 130 provide authentic capabilities.[4][6][8] This discrepancy means many businesses are investing in solutions that cannot deliver on the promise of agentic AI, leading to a lack of significant value or return on investment.[4][2] The underlying models often lack the maturity and agency to autonomously handle complex business objectives or follow nuanced instructions over time, with many so-called agentic use cases not actually requiring such implementations.[4][2]

The challenges extend beyond market hype into significant technical and organizational hurdles. Integrating agentic AI with existing, often legacy, enterprise systems is a complex technical endeavor that can disrupt operations and necessitate expensive changes.[4] In many cases, a complete redesign of business workflows may be a more viable path to success than attempting to retrofit agents into outdated processes.[4] Furthermore, the autonomous nature of these systems introduces a host of risks that organizations are struggling to manage.[9] These include data privacy and security vulnerabilities, as agents often require access to vast and sensitive datasets to function effectively.[9][10] There are also concerns about reliability, predictability, and the "black box" nature of some AI decision-making, which can be a major issue in regulated industries where transparency and accountability are paramount.[11] Without robust governance, security frameworks, and risk assessments, companies expose themselves to potential data leaks, financial fraud, and ethical dilemmas, such as algorithmic bias.[10][12][11]

Despite the sobering short-term forecast, the long-term outlook for agentic AI remains highly promising.[4] Gartner projects that the technology represents a significant leap forward in AI capabilities and will eventually unlock new market opportunities and drive innovation.[4] The systems that survive the initial cull are expected to improve resource utilization, automate more complex processes, and introduce new forms of value beyond what traditional bots and assistants can offer.[1] Gartner predicts that by 2028, at least 15% of daily workplace decisions will be made autonomously by agentic AI, a substantial increase from virtually zero in 2024.[2][13][14] Furthermore, the firm anticipates that 33% of enterprise software applications will incorporate agentic AI features by that same year, up from less than 1% in 2024.[2][13][15] For businesses to navigate the trough of disillusionment, Gartner advises a strategic focus on applications where agentic AI provides clear, measurable value, solving well-defined problems and boosting enterprise-wide productivity rather than just augmenting individual tasks.[4][8]