AI PCs Poised for Rapid Domination, Capturing Over Half of Market by 2026

The personal computer market is on the cusp of a significant transformation, with artificial intelligence-integrated PCs poised to become a substantial segment of global shipments. According to a revised forecast from technology insights company Gartner, worldwide shipments of AI PCs are projected to reach 77.8 million units in 2025, capturing 31% of the total PC market.[1][2] This wave of new devices, defined by the inclusion of specialized hardware like neural processing units (NPUs) to accelerate AI tasks, signals a pivotal shift in personal computing, promising enhanced productivity, personalization, and efficiency.[3][4] While the long-term outlook appears robust, the immediate path to adoption is facing headwinds, as market analysts point to economic uncertainty and the need for clearer consumer benefits as moderating factors in the short term.[1][5]

Market research firms, while universally agreeing on the upward trajectory of AI PCs, present a range of forecasts for the coming years. Gartner's projection of 77.8 million units for 2025 is a downward adjustment from a previous, more optimistic estimate, citing tariffs and a general pause in PC purchasing due to market uncertainty as reasons for the slower-than-expected adoption.[6][1] Despite this near-term caution, Gartner expects the momentum to build rapidly, forecasting that AI PC shipments will climb to 143 million units in 2026, accounting for nearly 55% of the entire market.[7] By 2029, the firm predicts that AI-equipped PCs will become the industry standard.[1] Research firm Canalys offers a more bullish short-term outlook, estimating that 48 million AI PCs will ship in the current year, representing 18% of the market.[3] Canalys projects this figure will more than double to over 100 million units in 2025, which would constitute 40% of all PC shipments.[3] Looking further ahead, Canalys anticipates a compound annual growth rate of 44% between 2024 and 2028, culminating in 205 million AI PCs shipped in 2028.[3] Meanwhile, research from IDC suggests AI PCs will grow from representing roughly one in five shipments this year to nearly two out of every three by 2028.[8]

The push towards AI PCs is propelled by a confluence of technological advancements and strategic industry imperatives. At their core, these new machines are designed to run AI workloads locally, rather than relying on cloud-based services. This on-device processing, enabled by NPUs from chipmakers like Intel, AMD, and Qualcomm, offers several key advantages, including faster response times, enhanced user privacy, and improved security, as sensitive data does not need to be sent to the cloud.[3][9][10] For users, this translates into new and improved experiences, such as real-time language translation, intelligent content creation tools, and personalized software interactions that can adapt to individual workflows.[11] For manufacturers, the emergence of the AI PC category presents a crucial opportunity to revitalize a mature market. This new wave of innovation is expected to stimulate a hardware refresh cycle and increase the overall value of the PC market, with Canalys estimating a 10% to 15% price premium on AI-capable models compared to their non-AI counterparts.[3][4] This premiumization is expected to help boost the total value of PC shipments from an estimated $225 billion in 2024 to over $270 billion in 2028.[3][4]

Despite the industry-wide enthusiasm, the path to mass adoption is not without its challenges. The primary obstacle, as noted by analysts, is the current economic climate, marked by uncertainty and potential tariffs that could temper consumer and enterprise spending on new hardware.[6][5][9] Beyond macroeconomic pressures, there is a hurdle in communicating a clear value proposition to the average user.[12] Some analysts argue that a disconnect exists between the industry's push for the new technology and the consumer's understanding of its benefits, with many potential buyers questioning the need for a dedicated AI PC when clear use cases are still emerging.[13][12] Furthermore, the higher cost associated with these advanced machines could lead price-sensitive buyers to delay purchases until the technology becomes more mainstream and affordable.[10] The upcoming end of support for Windows 10 in late 2025 is expected to be a significant driver of commercial PC refreshes, but it remains to be seen how many businesses will opt for the more expensive AI-enabled models versus standard PCs.[8]

The transition to the AI PC era will also reshape the underlying hardware and software ecosystems. A key trend is the growing competition between processor architectures. While the business sector is expected to continue favoring traditional x86-based PCs running Windows, with this segment projected to make up 71% of the AI business laptop market in 2025, Arm-based processors are forecast to gain significant traction in the consumer market as software compatibility challenges are overcome.[1][2][9] This shift is mirrored in the software industry, where a major pivot is underway. Gartner projects that by 2026, 40% of software vendors will prioritize investing in AI capabilities that run directly on PCs, a dramatic increase from just 2% in 2024.[1][9] This will lead to the proliferation of small language models (SLMs) that can run efficiently on local hardware, enabling a new generation of responsive, secure, and personalized applications that will ultimately define the user experience and justify the upgrade to an AI PC.[9]